Curt denials by Fiat Chrysler and Volkswagen that they’re talking merger belie the forces pushing the two automotive companies toward each other. Are the forces strong enough to overcome some resistance to a combination?菲亚特-克莱斯勒（Fiat Chrysler）和大众汽车（Volkswagen）公开发表结尾声明坚称正在展开收购协商，从而掩饰了推展这两家汽车公司向彼此投向的力量。那么这股力量能否强劲到战胜对拆分的阻力呢？VW is stumbling in the U.S.; acquiring Fiat Chrysler would immediately boost VW’s share of the U.S. vehicle market to 15 percent from the current 4 percent. Fiat Chrysler owns the Alfa Romeo luxury brand, which VW has openly admitted coveting. VW would gain the Ram pickup brand and Jeep, helping the German company towards its goal of world domination by 2018.大众汽车在美国市场遭遇了困境，而并购菲亚特-克莱斯勒可以很快将大众在美国汽车市场的占有率从现在的4%提升到15%。菲亚特-克莱斯勒享有奢华品牌阿尔法o罗密欧（Alfa Romeo），大众曾多次公开发表否认过对菲亚特-克莱斯勒的兴趣。此外，大众还能取得公羊（Ram）皮卡和Jeep品牌，从而协助这家德国公司更进一步构建2018年主导全球市场的目标。

For Fiat Chrysler and its controlling Agnelli family, the advantage of selling to VW would be simple and straightforward: a big pile of money. The stock market values the company, according to its current capitalization, at about $12 billion. At least one analyst theorizes a buyout might cost VW $40 billion, including the assumption of Fiat’s debt.对菲亚特-克莱斯勒及其所有者阿涅利家族而言，将公司卖给大众的益处简单明了：能获得一大笔钱。根据目前的资本总额来看，公司的股票市值约是120亿美元。最少一名以上分析师推测回应，大众若要原始并购菲亚特有可能要花费400亿美元，还包括分担菲亚特的债务。“We believe a deal has a degree of industrial logic—and, perhaps more importantly, a load of emotional logic,” Bernstein Research analysts wrote in a report published on Thursday.伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）的分析师在上周二公布的一份报告中回应：“我们坚信这桩交易不存在着一定程度的行业逻辑——或许更加最重要的是，不存在着许多情感逻辑。

”Manager Magazin, a German publication, said this week that Ferdinand Piech, the chairman of Volkswagen and a member of the company’s controlling shareholder, the Porsche family, had been in takeover discussion with Agnelli family, the controlling shareholders of Fiat. All involved denied the story’s accuracy—though in the early stages of big industrial mergers, the truth can sometimes be bent or stretched.德国杂志《经理人》（Manager Magazin）本周回应，大众汽车的董事长费迪南德o皮耶希以及公司的有限公司股东保时捷家族早已与菲亚特的有限公司股东阿涅利家族展开了并购辩论。所有涉及人员都坚称了这一新闻——尽管业内在展开大型收购的初期，有时不会歪曲真凶。For some years, European bankers have concluded that the Agnellis are poised to exit the mass-market automobile business eventually, while hanging on to Ferrari and its F-1 racing team. A recapitalization that separated the Fiat auto company from other Fiat industrial properties set the stage for the merger with bankrupt Chrysler in 2009.这些年来，欧洲的银行家早已得出结论了结论：阿涅利家族早已打算从最畅销的汽车业务中逃脱，同时保有法拉利（Ferrari）及其F-1赛车队。

菲亚特汽车公司通过资产重组与菲亚特的其他工业公司分离出来，这为其于2009年收购倒闭的克莱斯勒公司建构了条件。Fiat Chrysler, while not in immediate financial distress, isn’t particularly profitable and must raise substantial capital to fulfill its own ambitious growth plans. Later this year, a public share offering of newly-consolidated Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. is expected to take place. That share offering could be a signal of support—or lack of it—from capital markets for FCA’s growth prospects.菲亚特-克莱斯勒尽管眼下还没财务危机，却也没过多的盈利。为了构建其雄心勃勃的快速增长计划，公司必需筹措物质资本。

在今年的晚些时候，新的拆分的菲亚特-克莱斯勒汽车股份有限公司（Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V.）可能会展开首次公开发表IPO。我们可以通过这次发行股票，显现出资本市场到底否寄予厚望公司的发展前景。

Beyond the question of what advantage VW sees in owning FCA is one of whether it’s actually a good idea. According to Bernstein Research’s calculations, the cost of acquiring FCA would be dilutive to VW shareholders in the short term. That may not bother Piech so much, who at age 77 appears active if not spry. But he may be more eager than his fellow shareholders.大众并购菲亚特-克莱斯勒需要取得种种益处是毫无疑问的，但这否知道是一个好主意还得打个问号。根据伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）的计算出来，并购菲亚特-克莱斯勒将不会在短期内减少大众汽车的每股股东收益。这或许会让皮耶希深感有多后遗症，虽然他现年77岁，却仍然积极主动。

不过其他股东有可能会像他这么生气。The Chrysler part of FCA has been down this road before with another German acquirer, Daimler AG. Daimler bought Chrysler in 1998 and then sold it to Cerberus Capital Management in 2007 after failing to realize its strategic vision. VW shareholders could be forgiven for deciding that they have seen this movie before want no part of FCA.菲亚特-克莱斯勒中的克莱斯勒公司曾多次经历过这样的事情。

另一家德国公司戴姆勒集团（Daimler AG）于1998年并购了克莱斯勒。在无法构建其战略目标的情况下，戴姆勒于2007年将其卖给了瑟伯罗斯资本管理公司（Cerberus Capital Management）。考虑到大众的股东早已看完了这场闹剧，他们想并购菲亚特-克莱斯勒也是情有可原。Until it becomes clear whether Piech is determined to proceed, and how quickly, VW still has plenty of work to do improving the brand’s North American presence. The FCA stock offering later this year could be a hint of things to come.在搞清楚皮耶希否要求并购，又将何时展开并购前，大众在提升自己在北美的不存在感觉方面，还有很多要做到。

菲亚特-克莱斯勒在今年晚些时候的首次公开发表IPO或许将暗示着收购事件的南北。

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